In the last two posts I've talked about the balance of payments and their adverse effects on the Kenyan economy going forward if nothing is done to correct the dwindling trade balances. Note that import cover currently stands at approximately 44% i.e. the proceeds we get from selling goods and services to foreigners can only buy 44% of our imports. This is not an ideal situation, in fact it leads to heavy indebtedness.
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| Weakening by the hour. |
Anyone who's been following the forex markets of late, with particular attention to Kenya, has been dismayed by its depreciation against all major currencies. With the dollar, the shilling has depreciated to Kshs 87.15/ dollar from Kshs 80/dollar at the start of the year. With the pound, the shilling was trading at Kshs 126/sterling pound in January, and now it has hit the 140 mark. In terms of the euro, the shilling has depreciated from Kshs 107/euro to a low of Kshs 123/euro. In percentage terms, the shilling has weakened by 8%, 12% and 14% to the dollar, pound and euro, respectively.
Some blame speculators, for hoarding on to foreign currency, thereby weakening the demand for the shilling. Others, put the blame squarely on the Central Bank's shoulders, as in the recent weeks, the CBK has been a buyer of foreign currency.
The reason that they have been buying foreign currency is due to their falling forex reserves. By law, the CBK is meant to maintain 4 months of import cover, i.e. forex reserves equal to the value of 4 months of imports. This is roughly Kshs 3.9 billion, as per their estimates. Hence, the CBK at any one time will have to have the equivalent of 3.9 billion shillings in a basket of foreign currency held in reserve. If you go back to the first paragraph, you will read that Kenya's import cover is 44%.
To make sense of all this data, the key points are simple. The balance of payments going forward will force the central bank to buy more and more foreign currency thereby weakening the shilling. A lack of sound agricultural policy will force Kenya to buy more and more maize, rice and wheat from foreigners weakening our currency. Kenya, faced with a declining export cover, will have to take on more debt from foreigners e.g. the IMF, The World Bank and Chinese lenders so as to finance our imports. The latter may initially represent itself as capital flow and thus demand for the shilling, but the debt payments that will come with it will represent demand for foreign currency, further weakening the shilling. (Notice, I haven't at all touched on the issue of fuel).
In short, my outlook on the Kenyan shilling is rather bearish. Unlike, South Africa, Zambia, Nigeria and other SSA countries, our economy is not based on commodities, therefore our currency is based on Kenya being competitive in terms of our industrial and agricultural output. I don't see these two variables improving.
What to do? If you are worried about the shilling, like I am. Then the only thing to do is to bet against it, by putting your money in financial assets denominated in foreign currencies. For example, you could buy shares or bonds denominated in the South African Rand, or even in U.S treasury securities (although, the dollar is having its own problems, given that the US has maxed out its credit card). All in all, have a portion of your wealth stored in foreign currency, rather than expose yourself to the weakening Kenyan shilling. Unless, there is a drastic change in agricultural policy, or by mere luck, the rains become more consistent and predictable, then there is little hope for the shilling.
Nonetheless, anything can happen with regards to currency movements, thereby making a mockery of my predictions. However, if the currency follows the economic fundamentals, then I am lead to believe that it will be a long shot to have a strong currency.
Samora,
Do you have any recommendations for every day Kenyans i.e. those who don't have the luxury of purchasing US America securities and how they can protect themselves from the current Kenyan economic climate?
Kingsley,
I know purchasing, US Securities is a long short, even for the "above average" Kenyan. What I would do, is to keep my cash in assets that at least earn an interest rate equal to or above the expected depreciation of the shilling, as well as inflation Govt bonds, perhaps.
Samora
Do you think there is another way to correct the balance of payments without the CBK buying more foreign currency?
Why did u not include fuel in your analysis of the shilling??are u considering it an exogenous shock to the currency???
I understand that u are bearish on the shilling, so is it reasonable to deduce that once the CBK corrects its balance of payments through foreign currency purchases only then will you become Bull.
Ok:
1st question: There is another way of correcting the BOP, increasing our competitiveness with regard to output. Aligning agricultural policy so as to increase self sufficiency in the food sector. Food imports account for a high percentage of our imports.
2nd question: I excluded oil, not cause its an exogenous shock, but just to ease the analysis. The brackets were just to make the reader understand how bad it can get.
3rd question; There is no way that the CBK can correct the BOP, beefing up reserves won't help with the BOP cause the value of imports will continue to increase and as such the CBK will have to have more forex. The only way their reserves can be boosted is if Kenyans export more so as to earn foreign currency.
I will be a bear for a long time.
I think the current fiscal and monetary policy being seen in the Treasury is a reflection of the path this country has been on for decades now. There is a lot of short term and reactionary thinking. There is a lot of money to be made at the expense of the ordinary kenyan and sadly the integrity needed to avoid these temptations is lacking. Fortunately no one lives forever. Another saving grace is the 75% youth demographic that is largely unrepresented amongst the wealthy. I smell an uprising of sorts.